Daily Update 31.07

Market Movers of the Day

 Asia-Pacific

*Australian Building permits rose 9.3%MoM versus a fall of -11% a month before

*In Japan Nomura/JMMA manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4

 Europe

*UK Gfk consumer confidence remained unchanged at -25

*UK Housing prices rose 1.3%MoM

*German Unemployment remained steady at 8.3%

*EU consumer confidence was -23 versus -25 a month before

 Americas

*US Initial Jobless claims rose to 584K

 The Overall Sentiment

As data publications stud largely in line with market expectations it was equities and equities profits that took the lead. Equity indexes across the board pushed to higher levels with a strong positive sentiment. The Dow rose close to 1% the S&P rose 1.19% and settled at the 986price zone. Oil the commodity which is one of the most strongly linked to the recovery story rose steeply and settled at the 67$ price zone. The FX trade was rather subdued although the Euro rebounded slightly from the 1.4$ support and the Sterling pushed back to the 1.65 zone. All in all it seems that whenever the market is gearing up for a bearish correction the bulls take the lead and push the market back to the higher range and keep the FX market in a typical August sideways.  

 The Day Ahead

Official data publications on the world economy will return to the centre stage with highly important data due to be published. The EU unemployment figure and CPI due at 9:00 AM will reflect the health of the EU job market and will shed light on the deflationary pressures in the region . Nevertheless it will be again data from North America which will dictate the sentiment. Both the GDP of the US and Canada are due this Friday and will conclude a week loaded with economic data mainly from the US. However the GDP will not be the only US data concluding for the week the Real consumption expenditure figures and Chicago purchasing managers index are also due this Friday and will help draw a clearer picture on the state of the world’s largest economy. Investors seem to wait for signs the steep economic nose dive is over thus if data publication will generally show a declining past of economic contraction the risk trade will remain a float whereas a rather negative data will spur some confusion among investors and could push markets to test the lower range.

 

Technical Analysis

 

AUD/USD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This pair has reached an important cross point. It seems that up to know each time the pair has tested the bullish momentum at 0.7, 0.75 and 0.77 the bulls were willing to pair more. The pair has recently pushed again to retest the 0.83-0.84. A break of that area could push the pair to the 0.87 while another failure to break the 0.83-0.84 resistance could puff a bit the bullish momentum and move the pair to retest the 0.77 support.

 

CHF/JPY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  Since topping out around 91.5 the pair has encountered strong resistance around the 90 resistance and has failed to regain bullish momentum. However analysis of the RSI indicator with a double dip of the 20 zone point out the pair is gaining strength and might be gearing up towards a strong move toward the 90 zone. The pair has also gained support around the 87 area which indicates a bullish pattern. Thus the 87-90 range should be watched for as only a break of that range would reveal the true direction of the pair.

 

Support/Resistance

 

 

Daily Events

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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