Now that we know how serious the market has taken the news over the Fed’s 1.5 trillion dollar printing spree, its time to evaluate how far exactly is this gigantic momentum going to take us.
I already hear traders talking about 1.4 EURUSD as a first appropriate target for the very near future, historically we have seen even bigger straight up moves without even a short period of consolidation (for example: last year December 8 to December 18 , EURUSD move from 1.27 to 1.47).
Fundamentally, if the Dollar still did not change its status as a safe haven currency, and if its recent downfall is purely the reaction of the Fed’s qualitative easing policy with not even a shred of positive thinking there , then we are still in a situation where demand for the Dollar might reemerge.
Until investors will start to recall what made them buy the dollar in the first place, we are lucked in a very anti-dollar environment, and yes, in this environment 1.4 EURUSD is likely to be printed in a few weeks range.
Z.Georgi
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Fri, Mar 20, 2009
EUR, The Trader's Blog, USD